Sami Chowdhury

Sales Rising, Prices Adjusting, and Supply Quietly Tightening

The March 2026 housing data for the Greater Toronto Area presents a market that is shifting in a way many buyers and sellers may not fully recognize yet. On the surface, the story looks simple: prices are down compared to last year. But a closer look shows something far more important unfolding beneath that headline.

Sales are rising. New listings are falling. Inventory is tightening. Buyers are active again, but cautious. Sellers are present, but selective. This combination does not describe a declining market. It describes a market in transition.

The more important question is not what happened in March. The more important question is what this shift is setting up for the months ahead.

A Market Moving Out of Correction

March recorded 5,039 home sales across the GTA, an increase of 1.7% compared to March 2025. At the same time, new listings dropped sharply to 14,442, down 16.7% year over year. That divergence between sales and listings is one of the most critical signals in the entire dataset.

During a declining market phase, both sales and prices typically fall together while listings rise. That is not what is happening here.

Instead:

• Buyers are returning

• Sellers are holding back

• Inventory is being absorbed faster than it is being replaced

This is not a collapse. This is a rebalancing phase after a period of price correction.

Prices Are Lower, But That Is Only Part of the Story

The average selling price in March 2026 was $1,017,796, down 6.7% from March 2025. The MLS Home Price Index benchmark declined by 7.4%, confirming that the price adjustment is broad across property types.

For many buyers, this creates a sense of opportunity. Prices are lower than last year, and affordability, while still stretched, has improved relative to peak conditions.

However, price direction alone does not define market conditions.

What matters is how prices interact with:

• supply

• demand

• buyer confidence

• financing conditions

And in March, those relationships are shifting.

Supply Is Quietly Tightening

While prices are still adjusting downward year over year, supply is moving in the opposite direction.

• Active listings: 21,596 (down 8% YoY)

• New listings: down 16.7% YoY

• Months of inventory: 4.9

At first glance, 21,596 active listings still sounds like a large number. And it is. Buyers still have choice in this market. But the trend matters more than the absolute number.

Fewer new listings means fewer fresh options entering the market. When that happens at the same time that sales are rising, inventory begins to compress.

This is how markets transition.

Not with sudden price spikes, but with tightening conditions that gradually reduce buyer leverage.

Buyer Behaviour Is Still Cautious, But More Active

Even with improving demand, buyers are not rushing.

• Average sale to list price ratio: 98%

• Days on market remain elevated compared to last year

• Buyers are negotiating and comparing options carefully

This tells us that:

• Buyers are active, but not emotional

• Decision making is still analytical

• Competition exists, but is not widespread across all listings

However, behaviour tends to lag behind market structure. Buyers often react to what they see, not what is forming.

Right now, the structure is tightening before buyer urgency fully returns.

Property Type Trends Reveal Where Leverage Exists

Not all segments of the market are behaving the same way. Understanding these differences is critical for both buyers and sellers.

Condo Apartments — The Most Buyer-Favourable Segment

• Average price: $620,479

• Active listings: 7,673

• Days on market: 39

This segment offers:

• the most inventory

• the longest selling timelines

• the most negotiation potential

For first time buyers and investors, this is where flexibility still exists.

Condo Townhouses — The Transitional Option

• Average price: $739,365

• Days on market: 36

These properties offer a middle ground between affordability and space. They are often overlooked but can present strong value for buyers looking to move beyond condo apartments.

Freehold Townhomes and Semis — Competitive Balance

• Townhouse avg price: $931,740

• Semi detached avg: $1,008,246

• Days on market: mid 20s range

These segments show stronger demand relative to condos. When priced correctly, they can still move quickly.

Detached Homes — High Value, Selective Demand

• Average price: $1,342,375

• Active listings: 9,320

• Days on market: 28

Detached homes remain the most expensive segment, but they are also showing resilience in demand.

Buyers in this segment tend to be:

• financially prepared

• more decisive

• less sensitive to short term price fluctuations

That keeps this segment relatively stable compared to others.

Interest Rates Are Stabilizing, But Still Matter

The financial environment plays a major role in shaping buyer behaviour.

• Bank of Canada overnight rate: ~2.3%

• Prime rate: ~4.5%

• Mortgage rates:

  • 1 year: 5.49%

  • 3 year: 6.05%

  • 5 year: 6.09%

Rates are not at peak stress levels, but they are still high enough to influence purchasing decisions.

This leads to:

• more calculated buying decisions

• stronger focus on affordability

• increased importance of pre approval

Buyers are not reacting emotionally. They are reacting financially.

What This Means for Buyers

The current market offers a window, but not an unlimited one.

Advantages right now:

• Prices below last year levels

• Negotiation still possible

• Good inventory in certain segments

Constraints emerging:

• Fewer new listings

• Gradual increase in demand

• Potential for tighter conditions ahead

The opportunity is not just about price. It is about timing relative to market direction.

What This Means for Sellers

Sellers are no longer in a declining market, but they are not in a seller driven market either.

This creates a strategic environment.

What works:

• Accurate pricing from the start

• Strong presentation and marketing

• Understanding segment specific demand

What does not work:

• Overpricing and waiting

• Relying on past market conditions

• Assuming buyers will stretch

The market is rewarding preparation and penalizing misalignment.

Investor Perspective — A Positioning Window

For investors, this is not a peak cycle entry point. It is something more subtle.

• Prices have adjusted

• Demand is returning

• Supply is tightening

These are early stage stabilization signals.

Investors who wait for headlines to turn positive often enter after conditions have already shifted. The current market requires a forward looking approach.

The focus should be on:

• long term fundamentals

• cash flow sensitivity to rates

• segment selection

Condo apartments and entry level segments may offer the most flexibility, but each strategy depends on individual positioning.

Risk Scenarios to Watch

No market shift is without risk. There are several scenarios that could influence direction.

1. Supply Remains Constrained

If new listings continue to decline, competition could increase faster than expected.

2. Demand Accelerates

If buyer confidence improves due to stable rates or economic signals, absorption could tighten quickly.

3. Rates Shift Unexpectedly

Even small changes in borrowing costs can influence affordability and sentiment.

4. Seller Behaviour Changes

If more sellers enter the market suddenly, supply could rebalance again.

What Comes Next

The March data does not signal a surge. It signals a turning point.

The combination of:

• rising sales

• declining listings

• stabilizing prices

suggests that the market is moving toward equilibrium.

The next phase depends heavily on supply.

If listing volume remains low, the balance could shift toward sellers faster than expected. If supply increases, the current conditions could persist longer.

Either way, the direction is no longer downward.

Final Strategic Takeaway

This is a market where positioning matters more than prediction.

Buyers should focus on:

• securing value while negotiation exists

• acting when the right property appears

• preparing financially before entering

Sellers should focus on:

• pricing correctly from day one

• aligning with current market conditions

• executing with strong marketing strategy

Investors should focus on:

• identifying segments with flexibility

• planning for long term stability

• entering before sentiment shifts

🏡 Thinking of Buying, Selling, or Investing in the GTA?
Don’t guess—use real data, real listings, and expert guidance.

🔍 Start Exploring Now (Live Search Portals)

👉 Gas Stations for Sale
👉 Commercial & Industrial Properties
👉 Residential Homes Across the GTA
👉 Hotels & Motels – Investment Opportunities
👉 Pre-Construction Condo Projects
👉 Condo Resale Listings (GTA)

📈 Market is shifting—smart investors move early.

📊 Latest Market Insights (Updated Monthly)

✔️ Rent vs Own in Toronto (2026): What Happens After 25 Years? A Real Numbers Breakdown!

✔️ Renting vs. Owning: How $2,500/month could cost you $190,000
✔️ GTA Housing — GTA Buyer Guide 2026
✔️ Mississauga Condo Market — Q3 2025
✔️ Durham Region Market Report — Oct 2025
✔️ Bill 60 vs Ontario RTA — What’s Changing?

👉 Read more market reports & analysis →

📩 Need Clarity Before You Move?

Get straight answers, not sales pressure.

Sami Chowdhury | Broker
📧 samichy@torontobase.com
🌐 torontobased.com | torontobase.ca

Let’s turn market uncertainty into opportunity.

Contact Me, If you are planning to buy, sell, or invest in the GTA, the most important step is understanding where your property or budget fits within these changing conditions.

I can prepare a detailed, data driven breakdown tailored to your situation so you can move forward with clarity and confidence.

 📌 Introduction: Why This Policy Matters Right Now

Ontario’s housing market is at a critical turning point.

After years of:

• skyrocketing prices

• aggressive interest rate hikes

• collapsing affordability

…we are now seeing something different:

👉 inventory rising
👉 buyers hesitating
👉 pre-construction slowing dramatically

And into this fragile environment, the Ontario government has introduced one of the most aggressive housing tax interventions in recent history:

💥 A temporary removal of the full 13% HST on new homes

This is not a minor tweak.

This is a massive demand-side stimulus designed to:

• revive construction

• boost buyer confidence

• protect the economy

But here’s the real question:

👉 Will this actually make housing more affordable… or just push prices higher again?

Let’s break it down.

🧾 What Exactly Changed? (Policy Breakdown)

The new proposal expands the GST/HST New Housing Rebate dramatically.

🏠 Key Highlights:

✔ Full 13% HST rebate on new homes
✔ Applies to homes up to $1 million (max ~$130,000 savings)
✔ Maintains rebate up to $1.5 million
✔ Gradual phase-out to ~$1.85M+
✔ Valid for:

• primary residences

• rental housing (separate rebate stream)

✔ Timeline:
📅 April 1, 2026 → March 31, 2027

✔ Federal + Provincial partnership:

• Federal covers ~5% GST

• Ontario covers 8% portion

🧠 How the Rebate Actually Works (Most People Misunderstand This)

This is where many buyers get confused.

❌ It is NOT:

• a direct price drop

• a builder discount

• free money at signing

✅ It IS:

• a tax rebate mechanism

Meaning:

• You either:

  • get credited by the builder

  • or claim it after closing

👉 The price of the home itself does NOT automatically decrease

This distinction is critical — and will shape the entire market impact.

🕰️ Historical Context: Why This Policy Exists

To understand this move, we need to look at what happened over the last 3–4 years.

📉 What Went Wrong in the Market:

1. Interest rates surged (2022–2024)

2. Pre-construction demand collapsed

3. Developers paused projects

4. Housing starts declined

5. Supply pipeline weakened

Ontario is now facing a serious problem:

👉 Not enough homes being built for future demand

This policy is designed to fix that — fast.

👥 Who Benefits the Most?

Let’s break this down by group:

🧑‍💼 1. First-Time Buyers

Biggest winners on paper.

💰 Example:

• $900,000 new condo

• HST = ~$117,000

👉 That could now be rebated

Impact:
✔ easier entry
✔ lower upfront cost
✔ psychological boost to buying

🏠 2. Move-Up Buyers

Also benefit — especially in:

• $900K–$1.5M range

👉 This is HUGE in GTA suburbs:

• Milton

• Pickering

• Oshawa

• Brampton

🏢 3. Investors (Important)

This is where things get interesting.

✔ Rental rebate still applies
✔ Lower cost → higher ROI

👉 Expect:

• investor re-entry into pre-construction

🧱 4. Developers (BIGGEST BENEFICIARIES)

Let’s be honest:

👉 Developers may benefit the most

Why?

Because:

• demand increases

• pricing power increases

• inventory absorption improves

📊 Economic Impact (Macro View)

Ontario estimates:

✔ +8,000 housing starts
✔ +21,000 jobs
✔ +$2.7B GDP

🧠 What This Means:

This policy is not just about housing.

👉 It is an economic stimulus package

Housing drives:

• construction jobs

• materials demand

• banking activity

• municipal revenue

🏘️ REAL ESTATE IMPACT (DEEP ANALYSIS — THIS IS THE CORE)

Now let’s get into the expert-level breakdown.

🔥 1. Pre-Construction Market Will Surge First

This is where the biggest impact will happen.

Why?

✔ HST applies mainly to NEW builds
✔ resale homes don’t benefit

👉 Result:

📈 Pre-con demand increases
📈 Builder confidence improves
📈 Projects restart

⚠️ 2. Developers May Capture the Rebate (CRITICAL RISK)

This is the #1 issue most people ignore.

If demand increases rapidly:

👉 Developers may raise prices

Example:

Before:

• Unit price: $900K

• HST rebate: minimal

After:

• Unit price: $950K–$980K

• Buyer “still feels savings”

👉 The benefit gets partially absorbed by developers

⚖️ 3. Supply vs Demand Timing Problem

Demand:

• Immediate

Supply:

• Takes years

👉 This creates a short-term imbalance

Result:
📈 Prices may rise before supply catches up

🏚️ 4. Resale Market Gets Left Behind

This is critical for your business.

👉 Resale homes:

• DO NOT benefit from rebate

Impact:

• Buyers shift to new builds

• Resale demand softens temporarily

BUT…

Later:

• spillover effect returns

📉 5. Short-Term vs Long-Term Price Effects

Short-Term:

• Demand spike

• Price pressure upward

Medium-Term:

• More supply enters pipeline

Long-Term:

• Stabilization (IF supply actually increases)

🧠 6. Investor Behavior Will Change

Expect:

✔ More assignment activity
✔ More pre-con flips
✔ Rental inventory growth

⚠️ RISKS & UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES

🚨 1. Price Inflation Risk

Biggest concern.

👉 Policy may:

• increase affordability temporarily

• but raise prices structurally

🚨 2. Developer Margin Capture

Instead of buyers saving:

👉 developers increase margins

🚨 3. Policy Cliff (VERY IMPORTANT)

Ends March 2027.

👉 What happens after?

• demand drops suddenly

• market shock possible

🚨 4. Regional Inequality

GTA benefits more than:

• rural Ontario

• smaller markets

🔮 Forward Outlook (GTA Strategy Insight)

Here’s what smart buyers and sellers should watch:

🧠 Buyers:

• Early movers benefit most

• Waiting = higher prices risk

🧠 Sellers:

• Temporary slowdown possible

• Then rebound

🧠 Investors:

• Pre-con window reopening

🧾 Final Verdict

This policy is powerful.

But it is NOT a magic solution.

👉 It will:
✔ stimulate construction
✔ boost confidence
✔ help some buyers

But also:

⚠️ risk pushing prices higher
⚠️ benefit developers heavily

📌 BOTTOM LINE

👉 This is a market-moving policy, not just a rebate.

And if you understand it early…

👉 you can position yourself ahead of 90% of buyers and sellers.Sources: 

Sources:

GST/HST New Housing Rebate

Ontario Expanding HST Rebate to Lower the Cost of New Homes in Partnership with the Federal Government

🏡 Thinking of Buying, Selling, or Investing in the GTA?
Don’t guess—use real data, real listings, and expert guidance.

🔍 Start Exploring Now (Live Search Portals)

👉 Gas Stations for Sale
👉 Commercial & Industrial Properties
👉 Residential Homes Across the GTA
👉 Hotels & Motels – Investment Opportunities
👉 Pre-Construction Condo Projects
👉 Condo Resale Listings (GTA)

📈 Market is shifting—smart investors move early.

📊 Latest Market Insights (Updated Monthly)

✔️ Rent vs Own in Toronto (2026): What Happens After 25 Years? A Real Numbers Breakdown!

✔️ Renting vs. Owning: How $2,500/month could cost you $190,000
✔️ GTA Housing — GTA Buyer Guide 2026
✔️ Mississauga Condo Market — Q3 2025
✔️ Durham Region Market Report — Oct 2025
✔️ Bill 60 vs Ontario RTA — What’s Changing?

👉 Read more market reports & analysis →

📩 Need Clarity Before You Move?

Get straight answers, not sales pressure.

Sami Chowdhury | Broker
📧 samichy@torontobase.com
🌐 torontobased.com | torontobase.ca

Let’s turn market uncertainty into opportunity.

Introduction: The $2,800 Question Every Renter Is Asking

If you’re paying around $2,500–$3,000/month in rent in Toronto, you’re not alone.

But here’s the real question more people are asking in 2026:

👉 “What if that same monthly payment could go toward owning a home?”

With interest rates stabilizing and more inventory coming into the market, the conversation has shifted from:

❌ Rent vs Home Price
✅ Rent vs Monthly Ownership Cost

Let’s break this down using a real scenario — and more importantly, what it looks like 25 years later.

The Scenario: Renting vs Owning

Buying Scenario

• Purchase Price: $630,000

• Down Payment: $50,000

• Mortgage: $580,000

• Interest Rate: 3.5%

• Amortization: 25 years

• Monthly Payment: $2,895.77

Renting Scenario

• Monthly Rent: $2,800

• Annual Increase (conservative): 3%

Monthly Reality: Almost the Same Cost

At first glance:

• Rent = $2,800/month

• Mortgage = $2,896/month

👉 Difference: ~$96/month

That’s the biggest mindset shift in today’s market:

💡 You’re not comparing affordability anymore
You’re comparing where your money goes

Where Your Money Goes

Renting

• 100% of your payment = expense

• No ownership

• No long-term return

Owning

Each payment is split into:

• Interest (cost)

• Principal (your equity)

👉 Over time, more of your payment goes toward ownership, not cost.

After 25 Years: The Big Difference

If You Buy

After 25 years:

✔ Mortgage is fully paid off
✔ You own the property 100%

Now let’s estimate value:

Conservative Appreciation (3% annually)

Future Value of $630,000 after 25 years:

👉 ≈ $1,320,000 – $1,400,000

So your net worth from this property alone:

💰 ~$1.3M+ in equity

If You Rent

Let’s calculate total rent paid:

Year 1: $2,800/month
With 3% annual increase over 25 years:

👉 Total rent paid ≈ $1,150,000 – $1,250,000

And after 25 years:

❌ You own nothing
❌ No equity
❌ Still paying rent (likely much higher)

Side-by-Side Comparison After 25 Years

👉 Difference in net worth: ~$1.3M+

The Hidden Advantage of Ownership

Beyond just numbers:

✔ Inflation Protection

Your mortgage stays relatively stable
Rent keeps rising

✔ Forced Savings

Every payment builds equity

✔ Leverage

You control a $630K asset with $50K down

✔ Future Flexibility

• Sell and upgrade
• Refinance
• Rent it out

But Let’s Be Real: Ownership Isn’t for Everyone

Challenges of Buying

• Need down payment + closing costs

• Must qualify for mortgage

• Responsible for maintenance

• Less flexibility to move

When Renting Makes Sense

• Short-term plans

• Uncertain income

• Not ready for responsibility

Why 2026 Is a Turning Point

The GTA market is shifting:

• Prices stabilized in many segments
• Inventory increased
• Buyers have more negotiating power
• Interest rates more predictable

👉 This creates a window of opportunity for renters to enter the market.

Key Takeaway

If you’re paying around $2,800/month in rent, you may already be:

👉 Financially capable of owning

And the long-term difference is massive:

💡 Rent = expense
💡 Ownership = wealth building

Final Thought

The question is no longer:

❌ “Can I afford to buy?”

It’s:

✅ “Can I afford not to own over the next 25 years?”

🏡 Thinking of Buying, Selling, or Investing in the GTA?
Don’t guess—use real data, real listings, and expert guidance.

🔍 Start Exploring Now (Live Search Portals)

👉 Gas Stations for Sale
👉 Commercial & Industrial Properties
👉 Residential Homes Across the GTA
👉 Hotels & Motels – Investment Opportunities
👉 Pre-Construction Condo Projects
👉 Condo Resale Listings (GTA)

📈 Market is shifting—smart investors move early.

📊 Latest Market Insights (Updated Monthly)

✔️ Renting vs. Owning: How $2,500/month could cost you $190,000
✔️ GTA Housing — GTA Buyer Guide 2026
✔️ Mississauga Condo Market — Q3 2025
✔️ Durham Region Market Report — Oct 2025
✔️ Bill 60 vs Ontario RTA — What’s Changing?

👉 Read more market reports & analysis →

📩 Need Clarity Before You Move?

Get straight answers, not sales pressure.

Sami Chowdhury | Broker
📧 samichy@torontobase.com
🌐 torontobased.com | torontobase.ca

Let’s turn market uncertainty into opportunity.

 February 2026 GTA Housing Market Overview

The February 2026 housing statistics for the Greater Toronto Area reveal a market that continues to adjust following the rapid price growth and interest-rate changes of the past several years. While home prices declined compared with the same time last year, the supply of homes entering the market dropped even more sharply. This dynamic has begun to tighten overall market conditions, even though buyers still retain some negotiating leverage.

According to the February 2026 market data, 3,868 residential properties were sold across the GTA during the month. This represents a 6.3 percent decrease compared with February 2025. Despite the drop in transactions, the supply of new homes entering the market fell much more dramatically.

New listings declined to 10,705 properties, representing a 17.7 percent year-over-year decrease. When listing supply falls faster than demand, the market often begins to tighten. This is exactly what the February numbers suggest.

Although fewer homes were sold compared with last year, the reduction in new listings means that the overall level of inventory did not increase significantly.

Inventory Levels Across the GTA

At the end of February 2026, there were 19,314 active listings across the GTA housing market. This represents a 2.4 percent decline compared with the same month in 2025.

When comparing active listings with the number of homes sold during the month, the market had approximately five months of inventory. In real estate analysis, this level is generally considered a balanced market, though it still leans slightly in favor of buyers.

During the intense seller’s market conditions of previous years, inventory levels were significantly lower. The current level of supply indicates that buyers now have more options and more time to evaluate properties before making purchasing decisions.

However, the sharp drop in new listings could gradually shift the balance of the market if this trend continues.

GTA Home Prices Continue to Adjust

The average selling price across all home types in the GTA during February 2026 was $1,008,968. This represents a 7.1 percent decrease compared with February 2025.

Another key measure of home values is the MLS Home Price Index benchmark price, which attempts to measure the value of a typical home by controlling for differences in the mix of properties sold. The benchmark price across the GTA reached $938,800 in February 2026, representing a 7.89 percent year-over-year decline.

The fact that both the average price and benchmark price declined confirms that the price adjustment is not simply due to more lower-priced homes being sold. Instead, home values across many property categories have softened compared with last year.

Detached Homes Continue to Lead the Market

Detached homes remain the dominant segment of the GTA housing market. In February 2026, 1,683 detached properties were sold, representing the largest share of total transactions.

The average price of a detached home reached $1,325,654.

Other property types recorded the following average prices:

• Semi-detached homes: $1,027,376
• Freehold townhouses: $930,779
• Condo townhouses: $748,500
• Condo apartments: $626,650

These numbers illustrate the continued affordability gap between property types. While detached homes remain the most desirable housing option for many buyers, the price difference often pushes buyers toward townhouses and condominium units.

Condo Market Shows Larger Price Declines

The condominium sector has experienced the most noticeable price pressure over the past year.

The benchmark price for condominium apartments across the GTA declined approximately 9.5 percent year-over-year, making it the segment most affected by recent market adjustments.

Despite the price declines, condo apartments remain an essential entry point for first-time buyers and investors. With an average price of $626,650, condos offer a more accessible option compared with detached homes and freehold properties.

Regional Differences Across the GTA

Housing market conditions vary significantly across the different regions of the Greater Toronto Area.

Toronto

The City of Toronto recorded 1,491 home sales in February 2026, with an average price of $1,019,144. Inventory levels in the city remained close to the overall GTA average.

York Region

York Region recorded 683 transactions, with an average home price of $1,133,471. This region continues to attract buyers looking for larger suburban homes.

Peel Region

Peel Region reported 706 sales, with an average price of $933,616. Peel continues to offer relatively more affordable housing compared with Toronto and York.

Durham Region

Durham recorded 454 sales, with an average price of $850,304. Durham also had the tightest supply conditions, with approximately 3.5 months of inventory, indicating stronger demand relative to supply.

Market Conditions: Balanced but Buyer-Friendly

The February numbers suggest that the GTA housing market remains balanced but still slightly favorable to buyers.

The average sale-to-list price ratio was approximately 97 percent, meaning homes typically sold slightly below their asking price.

Additionally, homes required more time to sell compared with the previous year. The average listing days on market reached 36 days, while the average property days on market reached 54 days.

These longer selling times reflect a market where buyers have more time to negotiate and compare properties.

Outlook for the GTA Housing Market

Looking forward, the most important factor to monitor will likely be the relationship between supply and demand.

If the trend of declining new listings continues while buyer demand stabilizes or increases, the market could gradually tighten later in the year. On the other hand, if economic conditions weaken or borrowing costs rise further, price pressure could persist.

For now, the February 2026 numbers show a market that remains in transition, balancing lower prices with declining supply levels.

🏡 Thinking of Buying, Selling, or Investing in the GTA?
Don’t guess—use real data, real listings, and expert guidance.

🔍 Start Exploring Now (Live Search Portals)

👉 Gas Stations for Sale
👉 Commercial & Industrial Properties
👉 Residential Homes Across the GTA
👉 Hotels & Motels – Investment Opportunities
👉 Pre-Construction Condo Projects
👉 Condo Resale Listings (GTA)

📈 Market is shifting—smart investors move early.

📊 Latest Market Insights (Updated Monthly)

✔️ Renting vs. Owning: How $2,500/month could cost you $190,000
✔️ GTA Housing — GTA Buyer Guide 2026
✔️ Mississauga Condo Market — Q3 2025
✔️ Durham Region Market Report — Oct 2025
✔️ Bill 60 vs Ontario RTA — What’s Changing?

👉 Read more market reports & analysis →

📩 Need Clarity Before You Move?

Get straight answers, not sales pressure.

Sami Chowdhury | Broker
📧 samichy@torontobase.com
🌐 torontobased.com | torontobase.ca

Let’s turn market uncertainty into opportunity.

Sales Decline Slightly While Listings Drop Sharply Across the Greater Toronto Area

The Greater Toronto Area housing market in February 2026 continued to reflect the complex transition period that began in late 2024. While home sales remained below levels seen a year ago, the supply of new listings fell even faster. This shift in market dynamics is gradually tightening overall market conditions, although prices are still under pressure compared to last year.

According to the February 2026 market statistics, there were 3,868 residential transactions recorded across the GTA, representing a 6.3 percent decline compared to February 2025. Despite this decrease in sales activity, the market experienced a significantly larger drop in new listings, which fell 17.7 percent year-over-year to 10,705 properties.

This imbalance between sales and new listings has important implications for the market. While buyers still enjoy considerable choice compared to the pandemic-era boom years, the pace at which new supply is entering the market has slowed noticeably. As a result, overall inventory levels declined slightly compared to last year.

Active listings at the end of February totaled 19,314 homes, down 2.4 percent from the same time last year. With sales activity at current levels, this represents approximately five months of inventory, which is generally considered a balanced market leaning slightly toward buyers.

Home Prices Continue to Ease

Home prices in the GTA continued to show downward pressure compared to the previous year. The average selling price across all home types in February 2026 was $1,008,968, which represents a 7.1 percent decline year-over-year.

Similarly, the MLS Home Price Index benchmark price, which measures price trends while controlling for changes in the mix of homes sold, also showed a decline. The composite benchmark price reached $938,800 in February, representing a 7.89 percent decrease compared to February 2025.

The decline in benchmark prices confirms that the price changes are not simply the result of more lower-priced homes selling. Instead, it reflects a broader adjustment in home values across the market.

Despite these year-over-year declines, prices have remained relatively stable compared to late 2025 levels, suggesting that the market may be approaching a stabilization phase after the volatility experienced during the interest-rate tightening cycle.

Detached Homes Remain the Largest Segment of the Market

Detached homes continued to represent the largest share of transactions across the GTA housing market.

In February 2026:

• Detached homes recorded 1,683 sales, with an average price of $1,325,654

• Semi-detached homes recorded 336 sales, averaging $1,027,376

• Freehold townhouses recorded 369 sales, averaging $930,779

• Condominium townhouses recorded 329 sales, averaging $748,500

• Condominium apartments recorded 1,088 sales, with an average price of $626,650

Detached homes remain the most sought-after property type, particularly among move-up buyers and families seeking larger living spaces. However, affordability challenges continue to push many buyers toward townhouses and condominium units.

The condominium apartment market, in particular, continues to play a critical role in maintaining transaction volume, representing the second-largest category of sales across the region.

Condo Market Under Pressure

The condominium sector has experienced some of the most noticeable price declines in the GTA market over the past year.

Benchmark data shows that apartment-style condominium prices fell approximately 9.5 percent year-over-year, making this segment one of the most impacted by the broader housing correction.

Several factors are contributing to the weakness in the condo market:

• Higher interest rates reducing investor demand
• Increased new condominium supply entering the market
• Higher carrying costs for investment properties
• Slower population growth compared to the immediate post-pandemic rebound

However, condos remain an essential entry point for first-time buyers, and affordability improvements could eventually bring more buyers back into this segment.

Regional Market Breakdown

Market conditions varied across the different regions within the Greater Toronto Area.

Toronto

The City of Toronto recorded 1,491 sales in February, with an average price of $1,019,144. Inventory levels were relatively balanced, with approximately five months of supply.

York Region

York Region recorded 683 sales, with an average price of $1,133,471. Inventory levels were slightly higher than Toronto, suggesting somewhat softer conditions.

Peel Region

Peel Region saw 706 transactions, with an average price of $933,616. The region continues to attract buyers seeking more affordable options relative to Toronto.

Durham Region

Durham recorded 454 sales, with an average price of $850,304. Interestingly, Durham had the lowest inventory levels among major regions, with roughly 3.5 months of supply, indicating comparatively tighter market conditions.

These regional differences reflect variations in affordability, commuting patterns, and local housing supply.

Market Balance: Buyers Still Hold Some Advantage

With five months of inventory across the GTA, the market remains relatively balanced, although buyers continue to maintain some negotiating leverage.

The average sale-to-list price ratio was approximately 97 percent, indicating that most properties are selling slightly below asking price.

Additionally, homes are taking longer to sell compared to the previous year. The average listing days on market reached 36 days, while the average property days on market reached 54 days.

These longer selling times highlight the more cautious behavior of buyers, who now have more time to evaluate properties and negotiate prices.

What This Means for Buyers

For buyers, the February 2026 market offers several advantages compared to the highly competitive markets of recent years.

Buyers currently benefit from:

• Increased property selection
• More time to evaluate options
• Greater negotiating power
• Reduced bidding competition

However, affordability remains a challenge, particularly for detached homes and larger properties. Mortgage rates, income growth, and economic confidence will continue to play important roles in determining buyer activity through the remainder of the year.

What This Means for Sellers

For sellers, realistic pricing and strategic marketing are now more important than ever.

In today’s market:

• Overpriced homes tend to remain on the market longer
• Well-priced properties still attract strong interest
• Professional marketing can significantly improve results
• Pricing strategy often determines whether a home sells quickly or sits on the market

Sellers who understand current market conditions and price their homes competitively can still achieve successful outcomes.

Outlook for the GTA Housing Market

Looking ahead, several factors will shape the direction of the GTA housing market in 2026.

Key influences include:

• Interest rate policy from the Bank of Canada
• Population growth and immigration levels
• New housing supply entering the market
• Employment and economic conditions
• Consumer confidence among buyers

If listing supply remains limited while demand stabilizes, the market could gradually move toward tighter conditions later in the year. However, any significant changes in borrowing costs or economic conditions could alter that trajectory.

For now, the February data suggests that the GTA housing market remains in a period of adjustment, balancing slower sales activity with declining supply levels.

About the Author

Sami Chowdhury
Broker

RE/MAX Realtron Realty Inc., Brokerage
885 Progress Ave, Suite 209
Toronto, ON M1H 3G3

📞 Direct: 647-725-0606
☎ Office: 416-289-3333
✉ Email: samichy@torontobase.com

🌐 www.TorontoBase.com

GTA Property Search • Market Updates • New Listings

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In an era defined by short videos, scrolling headlines, and algorithm-driven feeds, reading books and newspapers may seem less urgent than it once was. Yet the evidence is clear: sustained reading — whether in print or digital format — remains essential for personal development, informed citizenship, and long-term cognitive health.

This article explains why reading remains necessary, what has changed in the digital age, who is affected, and what it means for everyday life in Canada.

📘 What Is Happening

Over the past 20 years, reading habits have shifted dramatically.

• Print newspaper circulation has declined
• Book reading competes with streaming and social media
• Many Canadians now consume news primarily through short-form content

At the same time, literacy research shows a growing divide between deep reading and surface scanning. Digital platforms encourage rapid consumption, while books and structured journalism require sustained attention.

This shift has created concern among educators, policy experts, and public institutions. The core issue is not whether information is available — it is whether people are engaging with it deeply enough to understand complex topics.

Reading books and reputable newspapers remains one of the most reliable ways to build comprehension, critical thinking, and informed judgement.

📰 Why This Change Exists

Several structural changes explain the shift away from traditional reading:

1. Digital Convenience

News is now instantly accessible through phones. Alerts and headlines replace full articles. Convenience reduces friction — but also depth.

2. Algorithmic Personalization

Social media platforms prioritize engagement. Content is selected based on past behaviour, not necessarily quality or balance. This can narrow exposure to diverse viewpoints.

3. Attention Economy Pressures

Modern media competes for attention. Short content is easier to consume, but long-form reading builds stronger comprehension.

4. Declining Print Infrastructure

Local newspapers across Canada have closed or consolidated, reducing community-based reporting.

None of these shifts eliminate the importance of reading. They simply change how and where it happens.

📚 What Changed From Before

Historically:

• Newspapers were primary sources of civic information
• Books were central to formal education
• Reading required deliberate effort

Today:

• News often arrives through feeds rather than front pages
• Articles are skimmed rather than studied
• Opinions can circulate faster than verified reporting

The difference is not access to information — it is depth of engagement.

Books provide context and nuance. Newspapers provide verified reporting, editorial standards, and accountability. Short posts often provide reaction without explanation.

👥 Who Is Affected and How

Students

Reading builds vocabulary, analytical skills, and long-term comprehension. Educational outcomes are strongly linked to sustained reading habits.

Working Professionals

Policy changes, economic shifts, and industry trends require deeper understanding than headlines provide. Reading credible sources improves decision-making.

Homeowners and Voters

Municipal policies, interest rates, infrastructure projects, and regulatory changes directly affect property values and household finances. Understanding these topics requires more than summaries.

Seniors

Regular reading supports cognitive health and memory retention.

Communities

Local journalism holds institutions accountable. Without readers, accountability weakens.

🔎 Common Misunderstandings Clarified

“Everything is online, so books are outdated.”

Digital access does not replace structured knowledge. Books provide depth and sustained argument that fragmented content cannot replicate.

“Social media keeps me informed.”

Social feeds often amplify popular or emotional content, not necessarily accurate reporting.

“Reading takes too much time.”

Reading 20–30 minutes per day significantly improves comprehension and knowledge over time.

“Short summaries are enough.”

Summaries provide conclusions. Reading provides understanding.

🏠 What This Means in Real Life

Reading affects everyday decisions in practical ways:

• Understanding mortgage rate changes
• Interpreting government housing policy
• Evaluating economic forecasts
• Identifying misinformation
• Making informed voting decisions

When individuals rely only on fragmented information, decisions may be based on incomplete context.

Books develop long-term thinking. Newspapers provide verified current context. Together, they strengthen informed citizenship.

📈 The Cognitive and Social Benefits of Reading

Research consistently shows that sustained reading:

• Improves concentration
• Expands vocabulary
• Enhances empathy
• Strengthens analytical thinking
• Reduces stress

In contrast, constant short-form content consumption can reduce attention span over time.

The issue is not technology itself — it is balance. Digital reading is beneficial when it involves full articles, investigative reporting, and long-form journalism.

🧭 What to Watch Next

Several trends will shape reading habits in Canada:

• Growth of digital subscriptions to reputable newspapers
• Increased focus on media literacy education
• Expansion of audiobooks and e-readers
• Public library modernization
• Policy discussions around supporting local journalism

Citizens who actively choose credible sources will remain better equipped to navigate change.

🔑 Strong Takeaway

Reading books and newspapers — online or in print — is not a nostalgic habit. It is a foundational skill for informed decision-making in a complex society.

In a world saturated with information, depth matters more than speed. Sustained reading builds clarity, context, and resilience against misinformation.

The format may evolve. The necessity does not.

Sami Chowdhury

Sami Chowdhury is a licensed real estate broker in Ontario serving the Greater Toronto Area. He focuses on data-driven insights, clarity, and client education to help individuals understand housing, policy, and economic trends. His work emphasizes informed decision-making over speculation, and long-term understanding over short-term reaction.

Sami Chowdhury, Broker
RE/MAX Realtron Realty Inc.
Serving the Greater Toronto Area
www.torontobased.com
www.torontobase.ca

Ramadan is one of the most sacred months in the Islamic calendar, observed by millions of Muslims around the world. It is a time of spiritual reflection, self-discipline, gratitude, and deepened connection with faith and community. As the ninth month of the Islamic lunar calendar, Ramadan begins with the sighting of the crescent moon and lasts for 29 or 30 days.

During Ramadan, Muslims fast daily from dawn (Suhoor) until sunset (Iftar). Fasting means abstaining from food, drink, and other physical needs during daylight hours. However, Ramadan is much more than refraining from eating and drinking. It is a month focused on strengthening character, practicing patience, increasing generosity, and growing spiritually.

Fasting in Ramadan is one of the Five Pillars of Islam, making it a central act of worship. It teaches empathy for those who are less fortunate and encourages mindfulness about daily blessings that are often taken for granted. Beyond fasting, Muslims dedicate more time to prayer, reading the Qur’an, charity (Zakat and Sadaqah), and acts of kindness.

Evenings during Ramadan are often filled with warmth and togetherness. Families and friends gather to break their fast at Iftar, sharing meals and gratitude. Mosques host special nightly prayers called Taraweeh, where long portions of the Qur’an are recited. The final ten nights of Ramadan are particularly significant, especially Laylat al-Qadr (the Night of Power), believed to be the night when the Qur’an was first revealed. Many consider it the most spiritually rewarding night of the year.

Ramadan concludes with the celebration of Eid al-Fitr, a joyful holiday marked by communal prayers, festive meals, charity, and gatherings. It is a time to celebrate spiritual growth and renew bonds with loved ones.

At its heart, Ramadan is about renewal — renewing faith, intentions, and relationships. It is a reminder to slow down, reflect, forgive, and give. In a fast-paced world, this month offers a powerful opportunity to reconnect with what truly matters: gratitude, humility, compassion, and service to others.

A Warm Greeting

As this blessed month unfolds, may your days be filled with patience, your nights with peace, and your heart with light.

May your fasting and prayers be accepted, your home be filled with harmony, and your acts of kindness return to you multiplied.

Ramadan Mubarak to you and your family. 🌙✨

Peace and blessings always,
Sami Chowdhury

Happy Lunar New Year 2026: Welcoming the Year of the Fire Horse 🐎🔥

Lunar New Year 2026 arrives with powerful symbolism: the Year of the Fire Horse—often associated with independence, ambition, high energy, and forward momentum. Unlike the Horse zodiac sign that returns every 12 years, a Fire Horse year is rarer, appearing only once every 60 years, which is why many people view 2026 as especially significant.

In the traditional Chinese zodiac system, the Horse is linked to movement, vitality, and bold decision-making. Pair that with the Fire element, and the theme becomes even more dynamic—think courage, action, and “go-time” energy. Many Lunar New Year traditions reflect this same idea: leaving behind what no longer serves you, clearing space for luck, and stepping into a fresh cycle with intention.

Across the Lunar New Year period, one of the most striking sights comes from Beijing’s historic Lama Temple (Yonghe Temple). During the holiday, crowds gather there to burn incense and pray for good fortune—a ritual that blends spirituality, tradition, and hope for the year ahead. The incense smoke, lantern glow, and winter air create an atmosphere that feels both ancient and deeply human: people lining up not just for ritual, but for a moment of calm and meaning at the start of a new year.

If you’re looking for a simple way to honour the season, here are a few gentle, timeless ideas inspired by Lunar New Year customs:

• Reset your space: tidy up and declutter to welcome a “clean start”

• Set one bold intention: choose a goal that reflects Fire Horse energy—something you’ll pursue with focus

• Share warmth: a message, a meal, or time with loved ones is its own kind of good fortune

A warm greeting for 2026

Wishing you a joyful Lunar New Year filled with health, peace, and prosperity.
May the Year of the Fire Horse bring you confidence to begin, strength to continue, and luck along the way. 🧧✨

Happy Lunar New Year,
Sami
torontobased.com

Toronto real estate rewards buyers who understand infrastructure before it is fully priced in. For future homeowners and long-term investors alike, the Line 5 Eglinton Crosstown represents one of the most important structural changes to Scarborough’s housing market in decades.

This is not a short-term price spike story. It’s a connectivity, livability, and long-term value story — the kind that quietly reshapes neighbourhoods over 5 to 15 years.

The Historical Problem: Why Scarborough Was Discounted

For years, Scarborough’s affordability wasn’t accidental — it was functional.

Even when homes were larger and newer than Midtown equivalents, buyers applied a discount due to:

• Dependence on buses for east–west travel

• Congested roads like Eglinton, Lawrence, and Ellesmere

• Long, unpredictable commute times

• Multiple transfers to reach Line 1 or Downtown

In real estate terms, this created a “commute penalty.”
Markets consistently price uncertainty — and Scarborough carried more of it.

What Line 5 Changes at a Structural Level

Line 5 fundamentally removes Scarborough’s biggest friction point: unreliable east–west travel.

For future homeowners, this changes daily life in ways buyers directly pay for:

• Faster, predictable access to Midtown employment hubs

• Seamless connection to Line 1 at Kennedy

• Reduced reliance on cars for work, errands, and lifestyle

• Increased walkability around station nodes

In transit-oriented cities, this type of access is not a bonus — it becomes baseline expectation.

Data Insight: How Transit Historically Impacts Home Values

While each corridor behaves differently, transit-adjacent housing across Toronto and other major cities has shown consistent patterns:

• Homes within walking distance of rapid transit often command 5–15% price premiums over comparable non-transit homes

• Transit-adjacent properties show stronger price resilience during market slowdowns

• Long-term appreciation near new lines typically unfolds over multiple years, not immediately at opening

What matters most is proximity + usability, not just a station existing.

This is why buyers who act before full normalization often benefit the most.

Why Prices Near Line 5 Haven’t Fully Adjusted Yet

Infrastructure pricing does not happen overnight.

Right now:

• Many comparable sales still reflect pre-Line 5 assumptions

• Some sellers are still marketing Scarborough as “value alternative,” not “connected neighbourhood”

• Buyer awareness is uneven — especially among out-of-area buyers

This creates a temporary mismatch between actual utility and market pricing — the exact environment strategic buyers look for.

What This Means for Future Homeowners

1. Better Lifestyle Without Downtown Pricing

Future owners gain access to Midtown jobs, healthcare, education, and amenities without paying Midtown prices. That gap is where long-term equity growth lives.

2. Stronger Resale Demand

As transit becomes normalized, resale buyers focus less on “Scarborough vs Toronto” and more on:

• Commute time

• Station walkability

• Building quality

• Neighbourhood services

Homes that check those boxes remain liquid — even in slower markets.

3. Rental Flexibility

For owners who may rent out their property in the future:

• Transit access strengthens tenant demand

• Units near stations typically lease faster

• Rent stability improves during market fluctuations

This optionality matters for life changes, job moves, or upsizing later.

Who Should Seriously Consider Buying Near Line 5

First-Time Buyers

Buyers priced out of Downtown and Midtown can enter the market without sacrificing connectivity — often gaining more space and better layouts.

Long-Term End-Users

Professionals working in Midtown, healthcare, education, or along Line 1 gain predictable commutes and lifestyle efficiency.

Patient Investors

Transit-driven appreciation rewards time in the market, not flipping. Buyers thinking 5–10 years ahead align best with Line 5’s value curve.

Smart Buyer Strategy Near Line 5

Not every property benefits equally. Smart buyers should:

• Focus on walkable station access, not just postal code

• Prioritize buildings and streets with strong resale fundamentals

• Avoid overpaying for “future hype” — buy based on today’s usability

• Think in 5–10 year ownership horizons, not short-term cycles

Transit is not a shortcut — it’s a multiplier when paired with sound fundamentals.

The Buyer Takeaway

Scarborough is no longer affordable because it is inconvenient.
It is becoming affordable and connected — a much rarer combination in Toronto real estate.

Line 5 doesn’t guarantee price growth.
But it raises the long-term ceiling for buyers who understand how cities evolve.

Those who buy near functional transit before it becomes fully normalized often look back and realize they bought at the right moment — quietly, not emotionally.

Thinking about buying near Line 5?
Not every property benefits the same way from transit access. Station walkability, building fundamentals, and long-term resale demand matter more than hype.

👉 Request a Line 5 buyer analysis to see which Scarborough areas offer the strongest long-term value for homeowners.

Sami Chowdhury
GTA Real Estate Broker
Helping buyers make confident decisions — without pressure or guesswork.

📧 samichy@torontobase.com
🌐 torontobased.com

For Scarborough homeowners, the opening of Line 5 Eglinton Crosstown represents more than a new transit option—it marks a structural change in how buyers assess value, livability, and long-term price potential.

Historically, Scarborough properties carried a “commute discount.” Even well-maintained homes and condos were often priced lower than comparable properties in Midtown or along Line 1, largely because daily travel depended on buses, traffic-prone east–west corridors, and unpredictable transfer times. That friction is now materially reduced—and the market is beginning to reprice Scarborough accordingly.

With Line 5 fully operational, the buyer conversation changes in fundamental ways:

• Scarborough homes are no longer perceived as bus-dependent or transit-secondary

• Buyers can access Midtown, employment hubs, hospitals, and Line 1 with greater speed and predictability

• Commute reliability becomes a selling advantage, not a point of hesitation

This shift is especially important in a market where buyers are more cautious, mortgage payments matter, and lifestyle efficiency carries real dollar value.

What This Means for Scarborough Sellers

1. Stronger Market Positioning
Properties near stations such as Kennedy, Golden Mile, Birchmount, and Ionview can now be confidently positioned as rapid-transit connected, not merely “near transit.” That distinction matters. Buyers pay premiums for certainty, not just proximity.

2. A Broader, More Competitive Buyer Pool
Line 5 opens Scarborough to buyers who previously dismissed it:

• Midtown and Downtown professionals seeking value

• Healthcare and institutional workers commuting to hospitals and campuses

• First-time buyers and move-up buyers priced out of central Toronto but unwilling to compromise on access

More qualified buyers means more competition, not just more showings.

3. Improved Price Stability and Downside Protection
Data from other transit-oriented corridors shows that homes near rapid transit tend to:

• Hold value better during slower markets

• Recover faster after market corrections

• Experience stronger long-term appreciation than car-dependent areas

For sellers, this translates into greater price resilience, even when broader market conditions soften.

Smart Seller Strategy in the Line 5 Era

To fully capture this shift, sellers must market intentionally:

• Explicitly highlight Line 5 walkability and station access in MLS descriptions and marketing materials

• Anchor pricing to connectivity, not past Scarborough comparisons that predate Line 5

• Reframe Scarborough’s narrative: not as an alternative to Toronto, but as a connected extension of it

Listings that fail to emphasize transit access risk being undervalued—not because the home lacks appeal, but because the story isn’t being told clearly.

Bottom Line for Sellers

Line 5 doesn’t automatically raise prices—but it raises the ceiling for sellers who price and position correctly. The value being unlocked today simply did not exist in the pre-Line 5 Scarborough market.

Sellers who recognize this shift early—and market with confidence rather than caution—stand to capture gains that go beyond normal market cycles.

Thinking of selling in Scarborough?
If your home is near a Line 5 station, the market is no longer judging it the way it did five years ago. A pricing strategy built on today’s connectivity—not outdated comparisons—can make a meaningful difference.

👉 Request a Line 5–adjusted home value assessment and see what buyers are really paying for transit access in your neighbourhood.

Sami Chowdhury
Real Estate Broker | Greater Toronto Area
Independent market insight for informed real estate decisions.

📧 samichy@torontobase.com
🌐 torontobased.com
For questions or private consultations, feel free to reach out.

The opening of Line 5 Eglinton, also known as the Eglinton Crosstown LRT, represents one of the most significant infrastructure milestones in Toronto’s modern history. While much of the public conversation has focused on delays, cost overruns, and construction disruption, the long-term implications—especially for Scarborough—are far more consequential.

This is not just a transit upgrade. It is a structural shift in how Scarborough connects to the city, how its commercial corridors evolve, and how its real estate market is positioned over the next decade.

A Brief History of the Eglinton Crosstown LRT

The Eglinton Crosstown LRT was first proposed in 2007 under Toronto’s Transit City plan, with the goal of creating a high-capacity east–west rapid transit line across the city. Construction officially began in 2011, and early projections suggested the line would be completed around 2020.

Instead, the project stretched into a nearly 15-year build, ultimately opening under a phased “soft launch” on Sunday, February 8, 2026 .

According to TTC documentation:

• The line spans 19 kilometres

• It includes 25 stations

• It runs from Mount Dennis Station in the west to Kennedy Station in the east

This east–west connectivity is particularly important for Scarborough, where Kennedy Station functions as a major transit hub connecting Line 2 Bloor–Danforth, GO Transit (Stouffville Line), and now Line 5 Eglinton .

Why the Project Was Delayed

While your earlier documents outlined the controversies, the TTC’s own “Now Open” materials clarify that the line opened under phased conditions, without a launch ceremony, reflecting years of unresolved system integration challenges .

The major delay drivers included:

• Complex public-private partnership delivery

• Legal disputes between builders and Metrolinx

• Systems integration and testing failures

• Safety and reliability concerns during commissioning

By the time Line 5 opened, the TTC emphasized feedback collection and gradual service stabilization rather than immediate full-scale operation .

What Line 5 Actually Delivers for Scarborough

Stations Serving Scarborough Directly

Scarborough now benefits from multiple Line 5 stations east of Victoria Park, including:

• Golden Mile

• Birchmount

• Ionview

• Kennedy Station

These stations place large portions of Scarborough within direct walking or short bus-transfer distance of rapid transit .

Service Frequency and Reliability

According to TTC route information:

• Weekday rush-hour service runs approximately every 4 minutes

• Off-peak service runs every 6–10 minutes

• Weekend service operates approximately every 7–8 minutes

This level of frequency is transformative for Scarborough residents who previously relied on buses stuck in mixed traffic along Eglinton Avenue East.

Economic Impact on Scarborough

1. Reconnecting Scarborough to the City Core

Line 5 significantly reduces east–west travel time between Scarborough and Midtown Toronto. This improves access to:

• Employment centres

• Educational institutions

• Healthcare services

• Cultural and commercial hubs

Reduced commute friction expands labour mobility and makes Scarborough more competitive as a residential choice for professionals priced out of downtown and midtown markets.

2. Revitalization of Eglinton Avenue East

Construction devastated parts of Eglinton East’s business ecosystem. However, transit-oriented corridors historically experience post-opening recovery, followed by gradual intensification.

With Line 5 now operational:

• Foot traffic increases near stations

• Retail visibility improves

• Mixed-use redevelopment becomes economically viable

• Underutilized commercial parcels attract investor interest

This sets the stage for long-term corridor renewal rather than short-term speculation.

3. Transit-Oriented Development Potential

Line 5 stations are now anchors for:

• Mid-rise and high-rise residential development

• Purpose-built rental projects

• Mixed residential-commercial buildings

Scarborough’s relatively lower land costs give it a structural advantage compared to Midtown, where similar transit access already commands a premium.

How Line 5 Will Affect Scarborough Real Estate

1. Residential Prices: Gradual, Durable Growth

Transit access is one of the strongest predictors of long-term real estate value resilience. In Scarborough, the impact of Line 5 is expected to be steady rather than explosive.

Homes and condos near Line 5 stations—particularly around Kennedy, Golden Mile, and Birchmount—are likely to see:

• Stronger buyer demand

• Improved resale liquidity

• Higher rental interest

This positions Scarborough as a value-driven alternative rather than a secondary market.

2. Condo Market Repositioning

Scarborough condos historically traded at a discount due to commute limitations. Line 5 narrows that gap.

As affordability pressures persist across Toronto:

• Buyers will increasingly look east

• Scarborough condos become more competitive on price-per-square-foot

• Rental demand strengthens due to improved transit mobility

This supports both end-users and long-term investors.

3. Long-Term Investment Outlook

Major infrastructure projects do not produce instant price spikes. Instead, they reset the growth trajectory.

Over a 5–10 year horizon, Scarborough neighbourhoods connected to Line 5 are positioned to outperform the borough’s historical averages—especially where zoning, redevelopment, and transit access align.

What Buyers and Sellers Should Do Now

Buyers should:

• Prioritize walkability to Line 5 stations

• Look beyond today’s prices to long-term accessibility value

• Recognize Scarborough’s improving connectivity advantage

Sellers should:

• Highlight Line 5 access explicitly in marketing

• Reframe Scarborough as “connected” rather than “commute-heavy”

• Use transit proximity to justify stronger positioning

Final Thoughts

The Eglinton Crosstown LRT is not just a delayed transit project—it is a foundational investment in Toronto’s future. For Scarborough, it represents long-overdue connectivity, economic renewal potential, and a meaningful shift in real estate dynamics.

The market impact will not be immediate, but it will be lasting. Infrastructure of this scale reshapes cities slowly, then decisively—and Scarborough is now firmly on that path.

Sources (from your uploaded documents)

• TTC – Now Open: Line 5 Eglinton

• TTC – Line 5 Eglinton route and station information

Infrastructure changes cities slowly — and then all at once.

If you want to understand how Line 5 Eglinton impacts pricing, demand, and future growth in Scarborough, I’m happy to walk you through it.

📞 Let’s talk — no pressure, just clarity.

Sami Chowdhury
Real Estate Broker | Greater Toronto Area
Data-driven insights for smarter buying and selling decisions.

📧 samichy@torontobase.com
🌐 torontobased.com

Will Toronto Home Prices Fall or Rise in 2026? A Data-Driven Outlook

As we move into 2026, one question dominates conversations among homeowners, buyers, and investors alike: will Toronto home prices fall further, stabilize, or begin rising again?

Rather than relying on predictions or headlines, the most reliable way to answer this is by analyzing what the latest confirmed market data already shows. The December 2025 Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) Market Watch report provides a complete, audited snapshot of pricing, inventory, selling timelines, and negotiation behaviour across Toronto and the GTA.

That data does not give us certainty—but it does give us directional clarity.

The December 2025 Market Baseline

December 2025 represents the most recent full dataset available as we enter early 2026. Importantly, market conditions do not reset on January 1. Inventory, buyer psychology, and pricing momentum carry forward, especially during the winter months.

GTA-Wide Market Snapshot (December 2025)

Based on the data you provided, the GTA recorded:

• Sales: 3,697

• Average price: $1,006,735

• Active listings: 17,005

• Months of inventory (MOI): 4.9

• Sale-to-list price ratio (SP/LP): 97%

• Average LDOM: 41 days

• Average PDOM: 65 days

• MLS HPI composite benchmark: $942,300 (-6.30% year-over-year)

These figures describe a market that is functioning, but no longer driven by urgency or speculation.

Toronto Prices in Context: Softer, But Not Collapsing

Within the City of Toronto, price declines were present but less severe than the broader GTA, suggesting relative resilience in the core.

December 2025 MLS HPI benchmarks for Toronto show:

• Composite benchmark: $934,800 (-4.33% YoY)

• Detached benchmark: $1,465,600 (-5.43% YoY)

• Apartment benchmark: $573,600 (-6.87% YoY)

This matters because price direction is rarely uniform. Toronto is already displaying a more defensive profile compared to outlying areas, particularly in established neighbourhoods and well-located freehold homes.

The Most Important Signal for 2026: Inventory and Negotiation

Price forecasts ultimately hinge on one structural question:

Does the market tighten fast enough to restore seller leverage—or remain loose enough to keep buyers in control?

The December data leans clearly toward the latter.

Key indicators include:

• 17,005 active listings, a high level by recent standards

• MOI at 4.9, signalling a balanced-to-buyer-leaning market

• LDOM and PDOM are both elevated, meaning homes take longer to sell

• SP/LP below 100%, confirming negotiation is normal, not exceptional

These are not the conditions that typically precede rapid price appreciation.

Condos: The Pressure Valve of Toronto Pricing

One of the most important insights in the December dataset is the role of condos.

Condo apartment statistics show:

• 6,169 active listings

• Average LDOM: 46 days

• SP/LP ratio: 96%

Historically, condos act as the pressure valve of the Toronto market. When condo inventory is high and negotiations are common, it becomes difficult for overall prices to surge, even if certain freehold segments perform well.

Unless condo absorption improves meaningfully, broad-based price acceleration across Toronto remains constrained.

What Would Need to Happen for Prices to Rise in 2026?

A sustained price increase would require multiple conditions aligning, not just one.

1. Inventory must tighten

Active listings would need to decline consistently, pushing MOI lower and increasing competition among buyers.

2. Selling timelines must shorten

Falling LDOM and PDOM would indicate urgency in returning to the market.

3. Negotiation must fade

SP/LP ratios would need to move closer to, or above, 100% across most segments.

As of December 2025, none of these conditions are firmly in place.

What Could Push Prices Lower?

Further price softening becomes more likely if:

• Inventory remains elevated into the spring market

• Condo supply continues to outpace demand

• Sellers chase the market with price reductions

In that scenario, averages and benchmarks can drift lower even without a sharp economic shock.

The Most Likely Scenario: A Two-Speed Market in 2026

Based on the December data, the highest-probability outcome is neither a crash nor a rebound—but a two-speed market.

Holding up better:

• Well-located freehold homes

• Turnkey properties

• Scarcity-driven neighbourhoods

• Correctly priced listings

Remaining under pressure:

• Condo apartments with high inventory

• Properties requiring updates

• Homes priced based on past peak expectations

This pattern is already visible in the data and is likely to persist unless market structure changes materially.

What This Means for Buyers

For buyers in 2026, the advantage is not simply lower prices—it is market structure.

The data confirms:

• More choice

• More time to decide

• More room to negotiate

• Fewer emotionally driven bidding situations

This is particularly true in the condo segment, where inventory and selling timelines strongly favour patient, well-prepared buyers.

For a detailed buyer guide, see:
“GTA Buyer Guide 2026” → https://torontobased.com/blog.html/gta-buyer-guide-2026-8918579

What This Means for Sellers

For sellers, the lesson from December 2025 is clear: strategy matters more than optimism.

With elevated inventory and negotiation now standard, successful sellers in 2026 will be those who:

• Price correctly from day one

• Prepare homes to outperform competing listings

• Understand their micro-market, not just GTA averages

For deeper insight, see:
“Seller Pricing Strategy in 2026” → https://torontobased.com/blog.html/why-pricing-strategy-matters-more-than-ever-in-2026-8918585

What to Watch Next (Without Guessing Numbers)

To assess price direction through 2026, watch for trend changes, not predictions:

• Are active listings falling month-over-month?

• Is MOI trending lower?

• Are selling timelines shortening?

• Is SP/LP moving closer to 100%?

• Are condos absorbing inventory faster?

Those signals—not headlines—will determine whether prices stabilise or rise.

External References (Context Only)

• TRREB Market Watch definitions and methodology: https://trreb.ca

• Bank of Canada monetary policy framework: https://www.bankofcanada.ca

• CMHC housing supply and affordability research: https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca

Final Takeaway: Will Toronto Prices Fall or Rise in 2026?

Based on December 2025 data, Toronto’s outlook for 2026 is best described as conditional stability.

Prices are unlikely to surge without tighter inventory and faster sales. At the same time, a sharp decline would likely require prolonged oversupply or deteriorating confidence. The most probable outcome is a market where quality, pricing discipline, and location matter more than ever.

For buyers, this is a market of opportunity.
For sellers, it is a market that rewards preparation.

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Sami Chowdhury | Broker
📧 samichy@torontobase.com
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