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October 2025 GTA Real Estate Market Update – Homes & Condos

Posted on November 14, 2025 by Sami Chowdhury

October 2025 GTA Real Estate Market Update: Buyers Quietly Regain the Upper Hand

After years of extreme volatility, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market is finally starting to look… almost normal again.

The October 2025 numbers from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) show a market that is cooler than last fall, but much healthier for buyers than the frantic years of 2020–2022. Sales are lower, listings are higher, and prices are adjusting downward in a controlled way. At the same time, the Bank of Canada has taken another step in its rate-cutting cycle, with the policy rate now at 2.25%, and headline inflation hovering around 2.4%. Bank of Canada

For anyone thinking about buying or selling a home or condo in the GTA, October’s data sends a clear message: this is a negotiation market, not a bidding-war market. Well-qualified buyers have more leverage than they’ve had in years, while sellers need to be strategic, realistic, and data driven.

In this post, we’ll break down what the October 2025 market looked like across the GTA, how condo segments are behaving compared to low-rise homes, what the broader economic backdrop means for real estate, and what both buyers and sellers should be doing right now.

GTA headline numbers: fewer sales, more listings, lower prices

According to TRREB, 6,138 residential transactions took place across the GTA in October 2025. That’s a decline of roughly 9.5% compared to October 2024. Over the same period, new listings edged up 2.7% to 16,069. TRREB MARKET WATCH

Put simply:

Sales ↓
New listings ↑
Choice for buyers ↑

The average selling price for all home types in the GTA came in at $1,054,372, down about 7.2% year-over-year. A year earlier, the average price sat just above $1.13M.

At the same time, TRREB’s MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark – which measures the value of a “typical” home, adjusting for mix – was down about 5% compared to October 2024. TRREB MARKET WATCH

This combination of lower prices, higher inventory and softer sales tells us two key things:

Affordability has genuinely improved for buyers with stable jobs and financing.
Sellers face more competition and can’t rely on automatic appreciation to do the heavy lifting.

The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) sits around 38% for October 2025, down from roughly 43% a year earlier. Market watchers generally consider 40–60% to be “balanced,” below 40% to be buyer-leaning, and above 60% to be strongly seller-leaning. By that standard, the GTA has tilted slightly back toward buyers. TRREB MARKET WATCH

Days on market confirm the story: properties are taking longer to sell. Recent summaries of the October 2025 stats show the average listing spending around 50 days on the market, up from the low-40s last year and much higher than the “blink and it’s gone” days of 2021. VIP Condos Toronto

For buyers, that extra time matters. It allows room for second showings, financing conditions, home inspections, and more thoughtful decision-making. For sellers, it means adjusting expectations: not every listing will sell in a week, and pricing too aggressively can backfire.

Economic backdrop: lower rates, but not zero stress

The housing market doesn’t exist in a vacuum. October’s data needs to be read together with what’s happening in the broader economy.

On October 29, 2025, the Bank of Canada lowered its target overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, citing a contracting Canadian economy (–1.6% annualized GDP in Q2 2025), ongoing trade tensions, and a softer labour market. Bank of Canada

At the same time:

Headline inflation in September 2025 was reported at about 2.4% year-over-year, up from 1.9% in August but still within the Bank’s 1–3% target band. Statistics Canada
Unemployment in major urban centres like Toronto remains elevated compared to pre-COVID norms, reflecting slower business investment and the impact of U.S. tariffs on export-oriented sectors. Reuters

For real estate, the signal is mixed:

Positive: Lower rates mean lower mortgage payments on a given purchase price, which directly improves affordability.
Caution: Slower GDP growth, trade uncertainty, and softer employment make many households hesitant to jump into a big financial commitment.

That’s exactly what TRREB and several independent commentators are seeing: motivated, secure buyers are active, but a large pool of “maybe later” buyers are still sitting on the sidelines, waiting for clarity on interest rates and the broader economy. Toronto Condo Report

Low-rise vs condo: how different segments are behaving

Even though the headline numbers are GTA-wide, the market behaves very differently by home type.

From the October 2025 Market Watch and TRREB’s Housing Market Charts, several patterns stand out: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board

Detached homes
- Still the most expensive segment and the biggest ticket for buyers.
- Have seen some of the sharpest price adjustments from the peak years, particularly in the 905 where detached prices ran far ahead of incomes.
- Inventory for detached homes has risen meaningfully, creating negotiation room for buyers who were previously priced out.
Semi-detached and townhouses
- Act as the “bridge” between condo and detached.
- Price corrections haven’t been as deep as in the detached segment, but demand has softened as the cost of borrowing rose in prior years.
- For move-up buyers selling a condo and buying a semi or townhouse, this segment now offers a more manageable step-up than in 2021–22.
Condo apartments
- Condos remain the entry point for many first-time buyers and investors.
- Price declines have been more modest on a dollar basis, but the segment is very sensitive to investor sentiment, interest rates, and assignment activity.
- Central urban condos (especially downtown Toronto) continue to command a premium, while some outer-suburban condo projects are seeing more negotiation and incentives.

TRREB’s charts for October 2025 show that condo apartment prices are below their previous peak but still supported by structural demand: immigration, small households, and the relative affordability of condos versus ground-related homes. Toronto Regional Real Estate Board

For an agent like you, this narrative is gold for both first-time buyer and investor conversations:

“Detached and semi prices have corrected more sharply from the peak; condos have also adjusted but remain the most affordable ownership step. Today’s market finally lets you compare options calmly instead of rushing into the first listing you see.”

416 vs 905: core condos vs suburban ground-related

The October data and TRREB’s long-term charts still reinforce an old GTA truth: 416 and 905 don’t move in perfect lockstep.

City of Toronto (416)
- Higher share of condos and small homes.
- Average prices skew upward because of luxury product downtown and in central neighbourhoods, but condo entry points remain more accessible than detached in many 905 communities.
- Investor and renter demand are key drivers in this segment.
905 suburbs (Halton, Peel, York, Durham)
- More ground-related product: detached, semi, and townhouses.
- Price corrections tend to be more pronounced in boom-and-bust cycles because many move-up buyers are rate-sensitive and commute-sensitive.
- At current prices and rates, some 905 markets now offer very compelling value relative to the peak, especially for families willing to commute or work hybrid.

One useful way to explain this to clients:

If a buyer mainly cares about lifestyle, transit, and walkability, 416 condos and towns remain attractive, and the current price dip plus lower rates create opportunity.
If they primarily care about space and land, many 905 communities now offer detached or large towns at prices that would have been impossible to imagine a few years ago.

What this means for buyers right now

For serious buyers, October 2025 looks like a window of opportunity, with three supportive conditions:

More listings and longer days on market
Buyers can do proper due diligence: multiple showings, inspections, financing conditions, and sometimes even negotiating repairs or credits.
Soft but stable prices
The market isn’t collapsing, but prices have clearly moved down from peak levels, especially compared with October 2024 and earlier years.
Lower borrowing costs than in 2023–early 2024
With the policy rate at 2.25% and lenders gradually repricing mortgages, monthly payments on the same purchase price are easing. Bank of Canada

For your buyer clients, the right advice now is:

Get fully pre-approved with a conservative budget.
Focus on total monthly cost (mortgage + taxes + condo fees/maintenance), not just purchase price.
Be prepared to walk away if the numbers don’t work; another listing is very likely coming.
Use longer days on market as room to negotiate price, conditions, and closing date.

Remember that many sellers still anchor mentally to 2021–2022 numbers. Your job as their agent is to show them up-to-date comparables and explain where the market actually is today.

What this means for sellers right now

For sellers, October 2025 is not a doom-and-gloom story—but it requires strategy.

In a buyers’-leaning balanced market:

Pricing correctly on day one is critical. Overpricing and “testing the market” often leads to multiple price cuts and a stale listing.
Presentation matters more than ever: staging, professional photos, video, floor plans, and detailed feature sheets are no longer optional.
Condo sellers need to pay attention to building competition, investor listings, and any new-build projects nearby offering incentives.
Freehold sellers must understand that buyers have more choice and higher carrying costs; your property has to stand out on condition and value.

With months of inventory around the mid-4s and sales-to-new-listing ratio under 40%, this is a market where the best-presented and best-priced homes sell first, while others sit and chase the market down.

Your listing presentations can lean heavily on this message:

“We can’t control interest rates or the economy, but we can control price, presentation, and marketing. If we nail those three, you become one of the homes that sells in this market—not one that sits for months and then takes a big discount.”

Condos specifically: entry-level and investor strategy

Because condos play such a big role in the GTA, it’s worth calling them out separately in this blog.

First-time buyers:
Condos are still the most realistic ownership path for many households. With average prices lower than last year and rates coming down, the gap between rent and own is narrowing again in some buildings and neighborhoods. For clients paying high rent, a condo purchase at today’s prices with a properly structured mortgage can sometimes deliver similar monthly cost with equity build-up instead of rent.

Investors:
The picture is more nuanced:

Cash flows are still tight for many units, depending on purchase price, mortgage rate, and rent levels.
But price softening + lower rates can make select opportunities attractive, especially in high-demand rental pockets (near transit, schools, hospitals, or large employment nodes).
Investors need to be extremely spread-focused: rent vs all carrying costs, plus a realistic view on future appreciation under a more normal interest-rate regime.

TRREB’s October condo stats show that volumes have cooled from last year, but the sector remains underpinned by population growth and limited new supply in the pipeline due to construction costs and cancelled projects. Toronto Regional Real Estate Board

How to talk about this with your clients

You can adapt a simple, client-friendly script from this blog for your calls, emails and videos:

“Compared to last fall, we have fewer sales, more listings, and slightly lower prices. That means more options and more negotiating power if you’re buying—and more need for strong pricing and marketing if you’re selling.”
“The Bank of Canada has cut rates again, but we’re not going back to near-zero rates. The new normal is moderate borrowing costs and moderate price growth.”
“If you’re financially ready, this is the kind of market where you can make smart, patient decisions instead of rushing into a bidding war.”

Key takeaways

The GTA is in a buyers’-leaning balanced market. Sales are down, listings are up, and prices are trending lower than a year ago.
Rate cuts and moderating inflation are improving affordability, but economic uncertainty is still holding some buyers back.
Detached and semi prices have corrected the most from peak levels, especially in the 905, while condos remain the primary entry point for first-time buyers.
Sellers must be realistic and data-driven, especially on pricing and presentation, if they want to stand out.
Serious, well-qualified buyers have a rare opportunity to negotiate in a calmer market with more choice and less pressure.

Sources & reference links

You can list these at the bottom of your blog:

TRREB – Market Watch October 2025 (PDF) Toronto Regional Real Estate Board
TRREB – Market Watch October 2024 & news releases Toronto Regional Real Estate Board
VIP Condos Toronto – Real Estate Market Watch – October 2025 VIP Condos Toronto
Toronto Condo Report, October 2025
Wealth Professional – GTA housing market shifts toward buyers as prices and mortgage rates fall Wealth Professional
Bank of Canada – Monetary Policy Report – October 2025 and policy rate announcement Bank of Canada
Statistics Canada – Consumer Price Index, September 2025 Statistics Canada

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