Mary Peltola vs. Dan Sullivan: Why Alaska's 2026 Senate Election Is More Than Just a Close Political Race
When Americans go to the polls, most people understand the election process in a straightforward way. Voters select one candidate, election officials count the votes, and the candidate receiving the most votes wins.
But what happens when the leading candidate receives less than 50 percent of the votes?
In most American states, the answer is simple. The candidate with the highest number of votes wins, even if the majority of voters selected someone else.
Alaska follows a different approach.
The state uses a voting system called Ranked Choice Voting, which allows voters to rank candidates according to their preferences. If no candidate receives a majority in the first round, the election continues through additional rounds of counting.
The 2026 Alaska Senate election provides an excellent opportunity to understand this system.
According to the preliminary results displayed on November 5, Democratic candidate Mary Peltola was narrowly leading Republican incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan. However, neither candidate had reached 50 percent.
This raises an important question: What happens next?
To understand why the result may change, we first need to understand how Alaska's election system works.
Alaska's Election System: The Open Primary
Alaska introduced its current election system after voters approved Ballot Measure 2 in 2020.
One of the biggest changes was replacing traditional party based primaries with an open primary.
In many American states, political parties hold separate primary elections. Democrats choose their Democratic candidate, Republicans choose their Republican candidate, and other parties follow their own nomination procedures.
Alaska does things differently.
All candidates, regardless of political affiliation, compete in the same primary election.
For example, Democrats, Republicans, independents and candidates from other political parties can all appear on the same primary ballot.
Voters can choose any candidate, regardless of their own political party.
Once the primary votes are counted, the four candidates receiving the highest number of votes advance to the general election.
This means the four candidates moving forward could belong to different political parties. It is even possible for several candidates from the same party to advance.
The objective is to give voters more choices in the general election rather than limiting them to one candidate from each major party.
The General Election: Voters Rank Their Candidates
This is where Alaska becomes particularly different from most other states.
In a traditional election, voters select one candidate.
In Alaska, voters can rank candidates according to their preferences.
For example, imagine an election with four candidates:
|
Ranking
|
Candidate
|
|
First choice
|
Candidate A
|
|
Second choice
|
Candidate B
|
|
Third choice
|
Candidate C
|
|
Fourth choice
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Candidate D
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A voter who strongly prefers Candidate A can still indicate that Candidate B would be their next preference if Candidate A does not remain in the election.
Voters do not have to rank all four candidates. They can rank only one, two or three candidates if they wish.
This is an important feature because voters can support their favourite candidate without necessarily feeling that they are wasting their vote.
First Round: Counting the First Choices
After the election, officials count the first choice votes.
If one candidate receives more than 50 percent of the continuing votes, that candidate wins.
But what happens when nobody receives a majority?
That is exactly when ranked choice voting becomes important.
Instead of immediately declaring the candidate with the most votes the winner, election officials begin another round of counting.
The candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated.
Their ballots are then examined to determine which remaining candidate those voters ranked next.
Those votes are transferred to the next available preference.
How Are Votes Transferred?
Let's use a hypothetical election to understand the process.
Imagine four candidates receive the following first choice votes:
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Candidate
|
First choice votes
|
|
Candidate A
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42%
|
|
Candidate B
|
35%
|
|
Candidate C
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15%
|
|
Candidate D
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8%
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Candidate A is leading, but has only 42 percent.
Nobody has reached a majority.
Under Alaska's system, Candidate D, who received the fewest votes, is eliminated.
Election officials then examine the ballots that originally selected Candidate D.
Imagine those voters ranked their remaining preferences as follows:
5 percentage points next preferred Candidate A.
2 percentage points next preferred Candidate B.
1 percentage point next preferred Candidate C.
The votes are transferred.
The new results become:
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Candidate
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Votes after first transfer
|
|
Candidate A
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47%
|
|
Candidate B
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37%
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Candidate C
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16%
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|
|
|
Nobody has reached 50 percent yet.
Candidate C is now in last place and is eliminated.
Officials examine the ballots that were originally assigned to Candidate C, including ballots transferred to Candidate C in the previous round.
Suppose their next available preferences produce these transfers:
The final result becomes:
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Candidate
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Final continuing votes
|
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Candidate A
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57%
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Candidate B
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43%
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|
|
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Candidate A wins.
Notice something important.
Candidate A started with 42 percent of the first choice votes. Candidate B started with 35 percent.
But the final result was determined by how voters ranked the candidates, not simply by who received the most first choice votes.
This is the central idea behind ranked choice voting.
The winner is determined through multiple rounds of counting, not necessarily by the first round alone.
What If Voters Do Not Rank Their Other Choices?
There is another important detail.
Voters are not required to rank every candidate.
Imagine someone votes for Candidate D as their first choice but does not rank anybody else.
When Candidate D is eliminated, that ballot has nowhere else to go.
The ballot becomes exhausted.
It is no longer included in the continuing vote total.
This means the majority threshold is calculated using the votes that remain active in the count, not necessarily every ballot originally cast.
For example, if 100,000 ballots were originally counted but 5,000 become exhausted, the continuing vote total is 95,000.
A candidate would need more than half of those 95,000 continuing votes to win.
This is an important distinction. A candidate can receive a majority of continuing votes without necessarily receiving more than 50 percent of all ballots originally cast.
6. Let's Apply This to Alaska's 2026 Senate Election
Now let's look at the actual preliminary results shown in the November 5 screenshot.
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Candidate
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Political party
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Votes
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Share
|
|
Mary Peltola
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Democrat
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102,962
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48.2%
|
|
Dan Sullivan
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Republican
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102,325
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47.9%
|
|
Gerald Heikes
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Republican
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4,846
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2.2%
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|
Daniel J. Sullivan
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Independent
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3,600
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1.7%
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At the time of this results snapshot, approximately 74 percent of votes were estimated to have been counted.
Mary Peltola was ahead of Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan by just 637 votes.
However, neither candidate had received more than 50 percent.
If the final first choice count remains without a majority, the ranked choice tabulation will begin.
Based on the current order, Daniel J. Sullivan would be the first candidate eliminated if he remains in fourth place.
His ballots would be examined and transferred according to the next available preferences marked by those voters.
Gerald Heikes could then be eliminated if he remains in third place.
His ballots would also be examined and transferred.
Eventually, only two candidates would remain: Mary Peltola and Dan Sullivan.
The candidate receiving more than 50 percent of the continuing votes would win.
But there is something we should not assume.
Gerald Heikes is a Republican, but that does not mean every voter who selected him will automatically transfer their vote to Dan Sullivan.
Some may have ranked Peltola second. Others may have ranked Daniel J. Sullivan second. Some may not have ranked another candidate at all.
The same principle applies to the independent candidate's supporters.
The voters' actual rankings, not the candidates' political affiliations, determine where the votes transfer.
That is why the final outcome cannot be predicted simply by adding the percentages of candidates from the same party.
How Is Alaska Different From Most Other American States?
To understand the difference, it helps to compare three common election approaches.
Traditional plurality voting
Most states use a system where voters select one candidate. The candidate with the highest number of votes wins, even without receiving 50 percent.
For example:
|
Candidate
|
Votes
|
|
Candidate A
|
40%
|
|
Candidate B
|
35%
|
|
Candidate C
|
25%
|
Candidate A wins, even though 60 percent of voters selected someone else.
Runoff elections
Some states require a separate runoff election if nobody reaches a specified threshold.
The two leading candidates face each other again, and voters return to the polls.
This requires another election, additional administration and another opportunity for voters to participate.
Alaska's ranked choice voting
Alaska allows voters to rank candidates during the original election.
If nobody receives a majority, the lowest candidates are eliminated in successive rounds. Votes are transferred according to the rankings already provided.
There is no need to organize a second election.
|
Feature
|
Traditional plurality
|
Runoff election
|
Alaska ranked choice
|
|
Voters select one candidate
|
Yes
|
Usually
|
No, they can rank candidates
|
|
More than 50% required
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Usually no
|
Depends on state rules
|
Majority of continuing votes
|
|
Additional election needed
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
|
Votes transferred
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
|
Multiple counting rounds
|
No
|
Separate election
|
Yes
|
Not every state uses identical election rules. Some have different primary systems and different requirements for runoffs. But this comparison illustrates the major differences.
When Will Alaska Know the Final Winner?
Election night results are not necessarily the final results.
Alaska has to process outstanding ballots, including eligible absentee ballots and other ballots that require review.
The state also has a specific timetable for its ranked choice tabulation.
Under Alaska's election procedures, the ranked choice tabulation is generally scheduled no earlier than 15 days after Election Day, once the necessary ballot counting and review have taken place.
That means the first choice results may be available much earlier than the final ranked choice outcome.
For the November 3, 2026 election, the official election calendar and any applicable deadlines should be checked before announcing a precise date.
This is why the first place candidate on election night may not necessarily become the final winner.
Alaska Has Already Faced a Debate Over Its Election System
Ranked choice voting has supporters and critics.
Alaska voters approved the new system in 2020.
However, the system faced a major political challenge in 2024 when voters considered a proposal to repeal it.
The repeal measure was narrowly defeated, allowing the system to remain in place.
Supporters argue that ranked choice voting gives people more choices, encourages candidates to appeal to a broader electorate and reduces the fear of wasting a vote on an independent or less popular candidate.
Critics argue that it makes elections more complicated, requires additional voter education and can make the counting process less straightforward.
These are important concerns.
For any voting system to work effectively, voters must understand how it operates and have confidence in the counting process.
Could Other States Learn From Alaska?
The biggest question is whether other American states should consider adopting ranked choice voting.
There are potential advantages.
First, voters can support their preferred candidate without necessarily feeling that they are helping elect someone they strongly oppose.
Second, candidates may have an incentive to appeal to voters beyond their traditional political base because they may need to become someone's second or third choice.
Third, independent candidates may have more opportunities to participate in competitive elections.
However, ranked choice voting does not automatically solve political polarization, misinformation or declining public trust.
A voting system alone cannot fix every problem in a democracy.
It is also important to remember that a candidate winning under a plurality system is not necessarily an illegitimate winner. The rules of that election determine how the result is decided.
The question is whether a different system might provide voters with more meaningful choices.
Democracy Is Also About How We Count Votes
The 2026 Alaska Senate election is an interesting reminder that election rules matter.
Mary Peltola's narrow lead over Dan Sullivan in the preliminary results does not tell the complete story. If neither candidate receives a majority in the final first choice count, the ranked choice process will determine the outcome.
This gives Alaska a different way of measuring voter preferences.
Whether other states should follow Alaska's example is a debate worth having.
The goal of an election should not be to benefit one political party or another. It should be to ensure that voters have a fair opportunity to choose their representatives and that the rules are transparent and understandable.
Democracy is not only about who receives the most votes. It is also about how those votes are counted and how the choices of the people are represented.
Sami Chowdhury, 6 November 2026
TORONTOBASED.COM
