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GTA Housing Market Update – August 2025

Introduction

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) has released its August 2025 Housing Market Charts, giving us a clear snapshot of how sales, listings, and prices evolved through the late summer. August is always a transitional month in real estate — balancing slower summer activity with early signals of the fall market. This year, the numbers reveal a market leaning toward balance, with pockets of opportunity for both buyers and sellers.


MLS Sales in August

The data shows MLS home sales in August continuing to follow seasonal trends, slightly below spring highs but consistent with past years. Comparing 2022–2025, sales volumes remain steady but not overheated, a sign that demand is still present despite affordability challenges.

  • Historically, August sales soften as families focus on back-to-school and vacations.

  • In 2025, sales volumes aligned closely with the levels seen in 2023 and 2024, reflecting a more stable demand curve.


New Listings on the Rise

New listings saw an uptick compared to recent Augusts. This increase has important implications:

  • More choice for buyers, especially in the suburban 905 markets where detached homes dominate.

  • For sellers, more competition means strategic pricing and presentation are essential.

  • Historically, new listings climb in September; the August rise could foreshadow a busier-than-usual fall market.


Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR)

The SNLR hovered in the balanced to buyer-leaning zone in August.

  • A ratio under 40% usually signals a buyer’s market, 40–60% balance, and over 60% a seller’s market.

  • August’s reading suggests buyers had slightly more leverage, negotiating with a growing pool of listings.

  • This ratio also correlates with future price movements — as the TRREB chart shows, when SNLR drops, annual price growth often slows.


Average Price Trends

The average resale price across the GTA in August 2025 remained below the 2022 peak but consistent with the cooling and stabilizing trend since 2023.

  • Prices hovered in the $1.0M range, with minor fluctuations depending on property type and location.

  • Detached homes in suburban markets showed softer prices due to higher inventory.

  • Condos, especially in Toronto’s 416 core, maintained stronger price resilience, supported by rental demand.


Long-Run Perspective

TRREB’s long-term charts highlight important context:

  • Sales trend: The 12-month moving average shows stability since mid-2024 after the sharp adjustments of 2022–23.

  • New listings trend: Rising slightly, showing confidence among sellers.

  • Average price trend: Flattening out, which indicates the market is moving from correction to stabilization.


What This Means for Buyers

  • More options: With listings climbing, buyers don’t face the intense bidding wars of past years.

  • Negotiation power: Conditions like financing and inspection are often back on the table.

  • Timing opportunity: Buyers who act before interest rates shift may secure better terms.


What This Means for Sellers

  • Pricing discipline is critical — buyers are well-informed and comparing across multiple listings.

  • Staging and marketing matter more than ever to stand out in a balanced market.

  • Sellers who prepare well can still achieve strong results, especially in sought-after neighborhoods.


Outlook for Fall 2025

Looking ahead:

  • September and October usually bring a seasonal surge in activity.

  • If the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates in September as many anticipate, demand could increase.

  • Expect balanced conditions to continue, with selective competition for well-priced, turnkey properties.


Conclusion

August 2025 highlighted a GTA housing market in transition:

  • Sales were steady, listings increased, and prices held firm within a narrower band.

  • Buyers enjoyed more leverage, while sellers faced more competition.

  • The balance of power may shift again this fall depending on interest rate moves and job market performance.

For professionals and consumers alike, the August numbers stress one theme: data-driven decisions win. Whether you’re buying or selling, tracking SNLR, inventory levels, and price trends is essential in today’s evolving GTA market.


📊 Source: [Toronto Regional Real Estate Board – August 2025 Housing Market Charts (PDF)]

 




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Canada’s Economy Stumbles in August: 66,000 Jobs Lost, Unemployment Soars to 7.1%

Date: September 5, 2025


Overview

Canada’s labor market took a significant hit in August, with Statistics Canada reporting a net loss of approximately 65,500 to 66,000 jobs, pushing the unemployment rate to 7.1%—the highest level since May 2016 outside the pandemic era (Reuters, Retail Insider).


Key Stats At a Glance

Indicator

Value

Jobs lost

~66,000 (mostly part-time) (Retail Insider, Reuters)

Unemployment rate

7.1% (Reuters)

Employment rate

Down to 60.5% (Reuters)

Participation rate

Fell to 65.1% (Reuters)

Wage growth

+3.6% (C$37.81/hour) (Reuters)

 

Industry Breakdown

  • Hardest hit sectors:

    • Professional, scientific & technical services (~−26,100 jobs)

    • Transportation & warehousing (~−22,700)

    • Manufacturing (~−19,200) (Reuters)

  • Sole bright spot:

    • Construction added approximately 17,100 jobs (Reuters)

  • Overall, the broader services sector, which employs around 80% of Canadians, lost a substantial 67,200 jobs (Reuters)

 

What’s Behind This Slump?

  1. Persisting U.S. trade tensions: Ongoing tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, and autos are undermining business confidence and hiring (Reuters).

  2. Part-time work bears the brunt: A sharp drop in part-time jobs—about 60,000—drove most of the decline; full-time positions were relatively stable (Retail Insider, TD Economics).

  3. Soft labor metrics: A shrinking labor force has somewhat masked how bad the situation could've been—less competition held back deeper rises in unemployment (TD Economics).

 

Market Reaction & Monetary Outlook

  • Market shifts: Odds of a Bank of Canada rate cut in the September 17 meeting spiked to over 90% (Reuters).

  • Currency & bonds: The loonie weakened against other G10 currencies (down ~0.1%) and Canadian bond yields dipped to their lowest levels since June (Reuters).

  • Analyst views: Economists at TD and BMO labeled the report “very poor” and “broad‑based softness,” signaling that further policy easing is likely (Reuters, Investing.com, TD Economics).

 

What Comes Next?

  • Bank of Canada’s policy crossroads: With labor market slack growing and inflation pressures still present, the central bank faces the classic dilemma—cut rates soon or risk deeper economic damage. All eyes are on the September 17 decision.

  • Signal for business sentiment: This job report—and any potential rate cut—will likely influence investments, hiring plans, and consumer confidence heading into Q4.

 

Further Reading




🏡 Ready to Start Your Real Estate Journey?

Whether you're planning to buy, sell, or invest, I’m here to guide you every step of the way — surprises and all.

📈 Looking to capitalize on today’s changing market?
Explore a wide range of specialized listings with access to powerful tools and search portals tailored to your needs:




 


📩 Need help navigating your options?
Reach out for expert advice and market insights:

Sami Chowdhury

BROKER
📧 Email: samichy@torontobase.com
🌐 Web: www.torontobased.com | www.torontobase.ca

Let’s make your next move a smart one!


Get more market insights here.



 




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