Sami Chowdhury

What December 2025 Data Tells Buyers Right Now

As of February 5, 2026, many buyers are asking a fair question:
“Why are we still talking about December data?”

The answer is simple — because December 2025 is the last fully confirmed, audited dataset, and market conditions do not reset on January 1. They carry forward, especially in winter markets like the GTA.

For buyers, the conditions revealed in December remain highly relevant today.

Market Data Lags — But Buyer Conditions Don’t Disappear Overnight

Real estate data is always reported after the fact. January numbers are still incomplete and subject to revision, while December data reflects completed transactions, final pricing, inventory levels, and actual negotiation outcomes.

That makes December 2025 the most reliable snapshot of buyer power heading into early 2026.

And what that data shows is clear.

Inventory Is Higher — Buyers Still Have Choice

As of December, active listings across the GTA were 17,005, up 17.5% year-over-year. That inventory didn’t vanish on January 1.

In early February:

• Many of those listings are still active

• New listings are being added gradually

• Buyer urgency remains low

For buyers, this means options still exist, and competition is manageable.

Homes Are Still Taking Longer to Sell

December showed:

• Average LDOM: 41 days

• Average PDOM: 65 days

Winter markets tend to move slower, not faster. That means in January and early February, buyers are still benefiting from:

• More time to review listings

• Fewer bidding situations

• Greater willingness from sellers to negotiate

This is not a market where buyers need to rush.

Negotiation Power Has Carried Into 2026

The December sale-to-list price ratio sat around 97% overall, and 96% for condo apartments. That tells us negotiations were already normal before the year ended.

In early 2026:

• Sellers are still anchored to those realities

• Buyers are still negotiating price and conditions

• Overpriced listings are sitting longer

This dynamic doesn’t reverse suddenly without a major external shock — and none has occurred.

Condos Remain the Buyer Opportunity Segment

December data showed:

• 6,169 active condo apartment listings

• 46 average days on market

• 96% sale-to-list ratio

In January and early February, condo inventory remains elevated. For buyers, this continues to be the segment with:

• The most choice

• The strongest negotiation leverage

• The least emotional competition

Prices Are More Grounded Than a Year Ago

December 2025 prices were:

• 5.1% lower year-over-year on average

• 5–8% lower on MLS HPI benchmarks, depending on housing type

Those adjustments are already built into seller expectations in early 2026. Buyers today are not competing against peak-market pricing psychology, which is a major advantage.

The Real Buyer Advantage in Early 2026

This is not about “catching the bottom.”
It’s about buying in a market where:

• You have time

• You have leverage

• You can include conditions

• You can compare multiple options

• You can walk away without losing the deal of a lifetime

Those conditions are still present right now.

Bottom Line for Buyers

As of early February 2026, the GTA market remains buyer-friendly by structure, even if activity slowly increases toward spring.

December 2025 data confirms the shift — and early 2026 is the continuation, not the reversal.

If you are financially prepared and buying for long-term use, this is a window where decisions can be made calmly, strategically, and on your terms — something that was rare in the GTA for years.

Sami Chowdhury
GTA Real Estate Broker
Helping buyers make confident decisions—without pressure or guesswork.

Every year on February 2, millions of people across North America pause—if only briefly—to see whether a groundhog has seen its shadow. The moment feels lighthearted, almost silly. Yet Groundhog Day has survived for well over a century, blending folklore, weather prediction, community ritual, and pop culture into one enduring tradition.

But where did it come from? Why a groundhog? And why does this small event still capture attention in an age of satellites, weather apps, and climate models?

Let’s dig in.

🌱 What Is Groundhog Day?

Groundhog Day is a traditional observance held on February 2, centered on a simple idea:

• If the groundhog sees its shadow, winter will last six more weeks

• If it does not, an early spring is on the way

The most famous groundhog is Punxsutawney Phil, who lives in Punxsutawney. Each year, crowds gather at Gobbler’s Knob to watch Phil emerge from his burrow while an official proclamation is read.

While Punxsutawney Phil is the celebrity, many regions have their own local groundhogs making predictions—each with loyal followers.

🕰️ Ancient Roots: Older Than America

Despite its playful tone, Groundhog Day has deep historical roots.

🌍 Celtic & European Origins

The tradition traces back to ancient European weather lore, especially Candlemas, a Christian feast day also held on February 2. Candlemas marked the midpoint between the winter solstice and spring equinox.

A popular saying went something like:

If Candlemas Day be fair and bright,
Winter will have another flight.

Clear weather meant a longer winter. Cloudy weather suggested spring was closer.

🦔 From Hedgehogs to Groundhogs

In Germany, people watched hedgehogs for similar signs. When German immigrants settled in Pennsylvania in the 18th and 19th centuries, hedgehogs were nowhere to be found—but groundhogs were plentiful. The tradition adapted, and a new symbol was born.

🇺🇸 How Groundhog Day Took Hold in North America

The first documented Groundhog Day celebration occurred in 1887 in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. Local newspapers helped popularize the event, turning a regional folk practice into a national curiosity.

Over time:

• Clubs and societies formed around the tradition

• Ceremonies became more theatrical

• Media coverage exploded, especially with radio and television

By the mid-20th century, Groundhog Day was firmly embedded in North American culture.

🔬 Does Groundhog Day Actually Work?

Short answer: not really—but that’s not the point.

📊 Accuracy Rates

Studies comparing predictions to actual weather patterns show accuracy hovering around 35–40%, which is worse than a coin flip. Even Phil’s own handlers joke about it.

🌡️ Why It Can’t Be Precise

• Weather patterns are complex and regional

• Seasonal transitions aren’t uniform

• Climate variability makes long-term prediction tricky

Yet people keep watching—not for scientific certainty, but for tradition and fun.

🎭 A Celebration of Community, Not Forecasting

Groundhog Day endures because it’s about shared experience.

What It Really Represents:

• 🧠 Hope at winter’s midpoint

• 👨‍👩‍👧‍👦 Community gathering

• 📺 A moment of collective pause

• 😄 Humor in the face of long winters

In colder regions, February can feel endless. Groundhog Day offers a psychological milestone—we’re halfway through.

🎬 Pop Culture Impact: The Movie That Changed Everything

The 1993 film Groundhog Day, starring Bill Murray, permanently elevated the holiday’s cultural status.

The movie’s themes—repetition, self-improvement, personal growth—gave the phrase “groundhog day” a new meaning in everyday language. Today, it’s commonly used to describe situations that feel endlessly repetitive.

Ironically, the movie has little to do with the actual holiday, yet it helped cement its place in global pop culture.

🌍 Groundhog Day in the Modern World

In the age of:

• Real-time weather satellites

• AI-powered forecasting

• Climate science

Groundhog Day survives precisely because it’s not serious.

It reminds us:

• Not everything has to be optimized

• Traditions don’t need precision to have value

• Rituals connect generations

Schools teach it. Cities celebrate it. Social media jokes about it. News outlets cover it every year—knowing full well how it will end.

Why Groundhog Day Still Matters

Groundhog Day isn’t about predicting spring.

It’s about:

• Finding light in the depth of winter

• Laughing at ourselves

• Holding onto traditions that make time feel human

In a world increasingly driven by data and speed, Groundhog Day slows things down—if only for a moment—and invites us to smile at the absurdity of waiting for a rodent to tell us what’s next.

And somehow, that still feels comforting.

Groundhog Day is all about predicting what’s coming next.

If you’re a homeowner thinking:

• “Should I sell now or wait until spring?”

• “What would my home realistically sell for today?”

• “How competitive is my neighborhood right now?”

📊 Request your FREE, customized home value report
No obligation. No guesswork. Just real numbers.

 — Sami Chowdhury | TorontoBased.com 🏙️
Local insight. Real data. Honest advice.